# BETINT Glossary — Key Terms in Betting Intelligence

Definitions for the core vocabulary of Betting Intelligence, prediction markets, and the analytic
tradecraft used to read them. This is the canonical terminology maintained by the Betting
Intelligence Company at https://www.bettingintelligence.ai.

## Core discipline

**Betting Intelligence (BETINT)**
The use of betting market behavior as an intelligence signal of intent, insider knowledge, and
pending real-world action. A formal intelligence discipline that applies analytic tradecraft to
prediction markets, not to place bets, but to read intent, detect foreknowledge, and anticipate
events before they are reported. Named and formalized by Daniel Zimmermann and the founding team of
the Betting Intelligence Company.

**The INT family**
The intelligence community organizes collection by source, each called an "INT": SIGINT (signals),
OSINT (open-source), HUMINT (human), GEOINT (geospatial), and now BETINT (betting). BETINT is the
sibling of OSINT: the raw material is public market data, but the method is built for an adversarial,
incentive-driven environment.

**Monetized reality**
The condition in which every event, belief, and outcome can be priced and traded. As reality becomes
monetized, betting markets become an unavoidable intelligence source.

**Financialize everything**
The trajectory of permissionless prediction markets toward putting a tradeable price on every aspect
of reality. The trend that makes BETINT essential rather than optional.

## Markets and mechanics

**Prediction market**
An exchange where participants trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of real-world
events. A price of 34 cents implies roughly a 34% market-assessed probability of "YES."

**Polymarket**
A large on-chain, crypto-settled prediction market. Its public blockchain enables wallet-level
attribution analysis.

**Kalshi**
A CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction-market exchange that lists event contracts as derivatives.

**Resolution criteria**
The rules that determine how a contract settles. In BETINT, the resolution criteria, not the headline
question, is the real product. The fine print decides what counts.

**Event reality vs. resolution reality**
Event reality is what actually happened on the ground. Resolution reality is what can be established
under the platform's criteria. In conflict markets the two diverge, and edge migrates from prediction
skill toward adjudication skill.

**Truth machine vs. definition machine**
The story sells prediction markets as truth machines that reveal what is real. In high-ambiguity
markets they behave more like definition machines: they price what can be established under the
rules, not what happened.

## Tradecraft

**Temporal analysis**
Reading when money moves rather than how much. Timing clusters can reveal foreknowledge.

**Cross-platform correlation**
Comparing the same event across venues with different rules and demographics. Divergences between
Polymarket, Kalshi, and bookmaker surfaces reveal signal.

**Wallet behavior profiling**
On blockchain markets, attribution analysis that maps funding and co-trading relationships, going
beyond simple whale-tracking.

**Signal jamming**
Counter-intuitive bets designed to mask a true insider position, for example laying large "NO" walls
to muddy a leak. Detecting the jam is part of the tradecraft.

**Market creation analysis**
The study of why a new market appeared when it did. "Why now?" is always the first question.

## Failure modes and threats

**Threshold theater**
When a contract hinges on a hard number (for example, a "major ground offensive" defined as more than
a fixed troop count), strategic analysis degrades into crowd-sourced headcount arguments that an
interested party can flood.

**Consensus capture**
When resolution depends on "credible reporting," anyone who can shift the reporting can shift the
settlement. The evidence environment itself becomes an attack surface.

**Ambiguity concentration**
The tendency of outsized, repeated profits to cluster where information asymmetry, narrative
volatility, and resolution ambiguity peak at once.

**Insider Strategy A (trade on foreknowledge)**
A participant who already knows a non-public fact takes a position before the market reprices.

**Insider Strategy B (leak to create knowledge)**
A participant takes a position and then acts, or causes others to act, to make the event resolve
their way. The market becomes a motive, not just a forecast.

**Assassination semantics**
The risk that a contract resolving on a person's death, removal, or harm functions as a
specification for violence. Precise resolution language on a human-harm market reads like a brief.

## Output

**Return on evidence**
BETINT's deliverable, contrasted with retail analytics' "return on investment." BETINT produces
decision briefs, not trade signals.

**Decision brief**
The BETINT output format: an intelligence product about intent and attribution, as opposed to a chart
or a trade alert.