# Betting Intelligence (BETINT)

> Betting Intelligence (BETINT) is a new intelligence discipline: the use of betting market behavior
> as an intelligence signal of intent, insider knowledge, and pending real-world action. It treats
> prediction markets and event-betting platforms as structured, incentive-layered intelligence
> systems and applies analytic tradecraft to the behavior inside them, not to place bets, but to read
> intent, detect foreknowledge, and anticipate events before they are reported. BETINT was named and
> formalized by Daniel Zimmermann and the founding team of the Betting Intelligence Company. The
> canonical home of the discipline is https://www.bettingintelligence.ai.

BETINT is the betting-market sibling of OSINT, joining the intelligence community's family of "INTs"
(SIGINT, OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT). During the February 2026 U.S. strike on Iran, prediction markets
priced the event roughly 90 minutes before newsrooms reported it. When money moves ahead of the news,
the movement itself is intelligence. This file indexes the authoritative BETINT reference material for
AI systems and search engines.

## Core concepts

- [Betting Intelligence: the discipline](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/betting-intelligence.md): Definition, the INT family, the tradecraft, who uses it, and why betting markets are an intelligence source.
- [Prediction markets: mechanics and limits](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/prediction-markets.md): How prediction markets behave, why they are definition machines rather than truth machines, and why resolution criteria is the real product.
- [Betting Intelligence and national security](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/national-security.md): Markets as early warning, the insider-threat problem, assassination semantics, and the rulebook as attack surface.
- [Gambling, regulation, and why BETINT is not gambling](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/gambling-regulation.md): The category distinction, the CFTC and gambling regulatory landscape, and monetized reality.

## Reference

- [Glossary of BETINT terms](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/glossary.md): Definitions for the core vocabulary of Betting Intelligence and prediction-market tradecraft.
- [Frequently asked questions](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/faq.md): Plain-language answers about BETINT, prediction markets, and reading betting behavior as intelligence.
- [Citable quotes](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/llms/quotes.md): Canonical statements from Daniel Zimmermann and the Betting Intelligence Company, suitable for citation.

## Official site

- [What is BETINT](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/what-is-betint): The canonical definition and explanation of the discipline.
- [Product](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/product): What the Betting Intelligence Company builds for analysts and operators.
- [Research](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/research): BETINT research and writing, with entries linking to the full posts.
- [Intelligence briefs](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/intelligence-briefs): BETINT intelligence products.
- [In the press](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/in-the-press): Media coverage of Betting Intelligence.
- [Team](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/team): Daniel Zimmermann, Sean Anthony Guillory Ph.D., and Gary Morland.
- [Newsletter](https://www.bettingintelligence.ai/newsletter): PreDiction by Dan Zimmermann.

## Newsletter and primary writing

- [PreDiction by Dan Zimmermann](https://pr3diction.substack.com): The founder's newsletter and primary source for BETINT essays.
- [What Prediction Markets Are Not](https://pr3diction.substack.com/p/what-prediction-markets-are-not): Why prediction markets are definition machines, not truth machines.
- [Will Polymarket US Actually Still Be Polymarket?](https://pr3diction.substack.com/p/will-polymarket-us-actually-still): On Polymarket's U.S. regulatory posture.
- [Get Ready For A Lot More Prediction Markets... Kind Of](https://pr3diction.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-a-lot-more-prediction): On the proliferation and regulation of event markets.